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16. 7. 2007
Made to prevent attacks, the U.S. radar may actually cause themSo much for the high profile Bush-Putin fence-mending fishing trip days ago. The Kremlin Saturday gave formal notice that in about 150 days it will suspend its participation in the key post-Cold War arms control treaty that has underpinned European security arrangements for the last 17 years. |
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Putin (rightly so) is not going to tolerate the establishment of an American anti-missile screen in Poland and the Czech Republic, ostensibly - but unconvincingly - claimed to stop rocket attacks on Europe from Iran and North Korea. It may even be that the nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea will actually prove groundless: Pyongyang appears to be stopping its own proven program in exchange for economic help from the outside world, while Iran, though refusing to stop uranium enrichment, has reached an inspection deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The Russian president wants to restore the national prestige and confidence that was damaged after the break-up of the Soviet Union and the economic and military collapse of a onetime superpower. And that is easy to be achieved if facing down one of America's most inept and shortsighted presidents in generations. Bolstered by a budget comfortably padded by incoming petrodollars, large existing weapons arsenals and its hand on Europe's oil tap, Russia feels it deserves to be taken seriously again. If the proposed anti-missile shield system was only wasted money, that would be outrageous enough. But it is also provoking a three-way political crisis among Europe, Russia, and the United States. While the Czech and Polish governments seem to be prepared to go along with the U.S. plans, nobody wants to ask the Czech and Polish people. Not even America's best friend in Prague, the "Czech Tony Blair", Vaclav Havel, wants the Czech population's opinion to be taken into account. We don't have a new Cold War yet, but the Bush administration's anti-missile plan could spark one. The real danger of the whole missile defense effort is that it serves as a rationale for maintaining larger arsenals. As long as the illusion of a shield to the nuclear threat is kept alive, the need for reducing nuclear stockpiles is diminished. I suspect Bush's friends in the military weapon industry are very grateful to him. Combined with the Bush administration's "Complex 2030" plan, which calls for building a new generation of nuclear weapons, it is the missile defense that represents the real threat to peace. |
